From the germ of an idea to realization took just slightly over one month. In today's red-tape-ridden world, that accomplishment borders on the fantastic.
Some of the skeptics in the Bay Area have kept in close contact with others of a similar persuasion. There had become an increasing awareness that we are building a cadre of people interested in critically examining claims of the paranormal.
If that last sentence sounds familiar, take heart. It is part of the Statement of Principles of The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP).
Bay Area Skeptics has been approved as the first local chapter of CSICOP.
At a Mensa Gathering in Napa, California, in April, 1982, many of us were on the program. We had the opportunity to increase our acquaintance with other skeptics.
And then it burst forth: In a telephone conversation with Robert Sheaffer, the inspiration hit. Robert came up with the founding words: "LET'S FORM AN ORGANIZATION OF BAY AREA SKEPTICS!"
The idea met with instant acceptance with me, with the Executive Council of CSICOP, and with several skeptics in this area to whom we've spoken. And so we're on our way.
How does one thank Paul Kurtz, Phil Klass, and James Randi for the swift and considerable support given to this new idea and chapter, without risking slighting the other members of CSICOP's Executive Council who also, obviously, supported this effort? Thank you all for your backing — we fully intend to justify your trust.
We are you, if you are interested. Come on aboard!
The founding members are:
=> Lawrence Jerome, Fellow of CSICOP, science writer, engineer.
=> Wallace I. Sampson, M.D., Member of the Paranormal Health Claims
Subcommittee of CSICOP, and outspoken critic of health fraud.
=> Terence J. Sandbek, Member of the Education Subcommittee of
CSICOP, Clinical Psychologist, Professor of Psychology - American
River College.
=> Robert Sheaffer, Fellow of CSICOP, science writer, designer of
micro-processor software, and an alert idea man.
=> Robert A. Steiner, Consultant to CSICOP, Member of the Education
Subcommittee, CPA, magician, writer, lecturer.
Have you grown weary of having a new acquaintance at a party inquire about your sign, rather than being interested in what you think?
Happily, there are many skeptics in the Bay Area. Come on out so that we can meet one another.
Saturday, June 26, 1982, 7:30 P.M. will be the founding party of the Bay Area Skeptics, at the home of Bob Steiner.
There will be snacks, conversation (REAL conversation), magic, planning, challenges, intellectual stimulation, and more.
One can just look around the Bay Area and realize that we seem to have more than our share of mystics. Come hither and see that there are a goodly number of real skeptics who dwell hereabouts: some are silent skeptics, and others are not so silent about it.
This party is the launch pad for the future ventures of Bay Area Skeptics. COME ON OUT!
Bring a spouse or date. And please feel free to invite other sincere skeptics.
BYOB. Smoking will be outside on the patio.
Bob Steiner
6000 Avila Avenue, Apt. D
El Cerrito, CA 94530
(415) 525-2841
Directions: Heading North of South on Routes 80 or 17, exit at Central Avenue, El Cerrito, heading towards the mountains. Somewhere between .3 and .7 miles (depending which route you come off of), you will arrive at Carlson Blvd., go one block, turn right onto Avila Ave. Park immediately. You are here.
We look forward to greeting you. Please remember: There will be only one Founding Party for the Bay Area Skeptics.
There are those in the Bay Area who "earn" their daily bread from the pain, suffering, guilt, fear, and hate of others.
Rev. B. Woods Mattingley, Founder-Director of The Seeker's Quest, entitled the lead article in his current newsletter: "Why Do We Suffer Pain?"
His answer: "Most serious illness can be attributed to one of several reasons: karmic, in which current life pain results from the excesses or 'sins' of a past life.... Physical pain is also a telling statement that the person has some past-life reason which is creating his present-life pain."
Those who are unfortunate enough to suffer pain do not need guilt piled on top of it!
The first organizational meeting and social bash of the Bay Area Skeptics was held in Bob Steiner's home on the evening of June 26 (as announced in the first "BASIS"). Before the partying started, the Directors held a brief meeting. No permanent editor for "BASIS" stepped forward. Bob Steiner will continue to edit the newsletter on a temporary basis (pun intended). The Directors were also informed that $135 had been contributed thus far. (The money will be used for stationery, copying, mailing, etc.) The Charter of BAS was discussed. After discussion, the Board voted to adopt the Charter as is. (Anyone wishing to receive a copy of the Charter, send a SASE to me.) The business meeting was then adjourned, and the partying started!
At the party was good food, good fun, and best of all, stimulating conversation of a very intelligent kind. Among those in attendance were Board members Jerome, Sampson, Sandbek, Sheaffer, and Steiner; psychologist Ray Hyman, one of the founding Fellows of CSICOP; Jack Patterson, Professor of Engineering at Iowa State University; inventor Ridgway Banks, authority on nitinol; chemist Kenneth Bomben; astronomer Donald Goldsmith; psychologist William McConnell; writer Michael McCarthy; magician Charles Nyquist; "Chronicle" reporter Michael Robertson; and many others too numerous to mention (or whose names disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle after the first few drinks). My apologies to anyone who might feel slighted.
Bob Steiner demonstrated his amazing psychic abilities to all assembled by doing such paranormal feats as psychically determining the identity of several freely-chosen cards, precognitively identifying a sentence from a newspaper article that had not yet been selected, and psychokinetically transporting a silk handkerchief into a parallel universe. The audience was vastly amused, but still not convinced that any of it was real. Then Terry Sandbek performed psychic feats, including telepathically discovering the identity of a card selected by Lawrence Jerome. My turn came, and I telepathically transmitted to my wife, who was in another room, the identity of a card known only to the people in this room. By this time, the audience was QUITE sure that it was all just a trick — but what do you expect from a bunch of skeptics?
[Ed. note. The above was all in fun and was all tricks. No one has permission to quote any of the above without also quoting this Editor's note.]
Although Sacramento may not have the emotional appeal of San Francisco or Los Angeles in the minds of people when they think of California, it has symbolic significance by virtue of being the state capitol. Nevertheless, it shares with its bigger sisters the dubious distinction of being a hotbed of distorted thinking on paranormal events. This strange attraction to the irrational is best seen from the vantage of the city's talk shows. With two local radio stations competing for people's attention, audience response can vary from apathetic to frenetic. Many of the state's political leaders appear on the programs with interesting and timely topics. The hosts and hostesses of the talk shows also talk with famous people across the United States by way of radio conversations.
Yet, there is no greater response from the local populace than when a self-proclaimed psychic comes on. Generally, the switchboards light up as soon as their presence is announced. With this kind of response, is it any wonder that the media (need we be reminded that these stations are profit-making ventures?) so whole-heartedly promote their appearance before the public? The point here is not to attack the media, but to point out the tremendous acceptance of psychics and their ilk in this area.
In our next column, we will share with you an experience that Bob Steiner and I had posing as psychics on several of these Sacramento talk shows.
On Dec. 31, 1981, Channel 7 (KGO) had psychic Jeanne Borger on "AM San Francisco" to make predictions of events for 1982. Among other predictions (which cannot be evaluated until the end of 1982), she made two predictions for times early in 1982: (1) there would be a Reagan assassination attempt in April, and (2) the stock market would hit 700 in April.
Neither of these occurred. The stock market went below 800 in March, but it did not "hit 700". If there was an assassination attempt, the media WEREN'T invited. Of particular interest, however, are the major events that were missed, namely (1) the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the role of the US as arms supplier, (2) the Falklands War and the US role in it, and (3) the resignation of Alexander Haig. These three events should have had a significant impact on any "view" of 1982.
For completeness, other predictions were (4) Reagan would have heart and kidney problems, (5) the government would force people to keep their money in the country; no foreign bank accounts, no ownership of foreign money, (6) two earthquakes would occur, with the one in Los Angeles being much, much worse than the one in San Francisco (no dates specified), (7) unemployment would get much worse, then level off by the end of the year, (8) Barbara Walters will have a dispute with and possibly leave ABC, and (9) Egypt and Libya will have a conflict and the United States will be implicated by foreign concerns.
While the final chapter has not been written on these predictions, it should be noted that the US dollar has strengthened against foreign currency, making (5) unlikely, and that the only earthquake reported so far this year in Los Angeles caused no damage.
[Ed. Note: Both Ken Bomben and Mike McCarthy did excellent analyses of Jeanne Borger's predictions. Although J.B. is not strictly Bay Area, she is widely known enough that an analysis seems instructive. Since we published Ken on the specifics, let's see the fine job Mike did on the methods.]
It must be borne in mind that a large number of Ms. Borger's "predictions" are not easily checked, due to her careful phrasing, not to mention her choice of topics. One of her stylistic marks is the "either/or" prediction, of which this is an example: "The threat of a Soviet invasion of Poland still casts a somber shadow across the whole of Europe. IF THAT HAPPENS, it is LIKELY TO OCCUR in March or early April. IF IT DOES NOT HAPPEN, the Soviet Union will later in 1982 call in its loans to the Polish government" (emphasis added). In other contexts, this appears as "if the invasion has not occurred by (period), then it will not occur at all." Note her use of "likely to occur"; even if the Soviets invaded in July (now a moot issue), her "likely" is an out. "Probably" and "likely" are commonly scattered in her predictions.
Secondly, many of her predictions are vague, or involve personal issues in the lives of pop figures, much of which cannot be confirmed or denied in any event. For example: "Jeanne Kirkpatrick (UN ambassador) is in serious danger from the middle of June through mid-July. During this period, diplomats around the world will be in danger and at least one will die, PROBABLY in July" (emphasis added). Even if Mrs. Kirkpatrick is not in the papers for a life threat, the nature of the serious danger and the likelihood that a threat might go unreported makes a denial of this prediction difficult. Added to this is the problem of defining a "diplomat".
"Psychic" Maria McKensie revealed in an interview with "The Examiner" (the national supermarket tabloid, not the local paper) that space aliens disguised as humans are roaming the streets of San Francisco! "I discovered them two years ago", she says, "but I didn't reveal their presence then because I was afraid it would start a panic." Looking out her office window in San Francisco's financial district, she reportedly became aware of people walking strangely -- as if they weren't fully adjusted to earth's gravity. (In some circles, people like that are known as junkies.) "And even more strange, they always stayed in the same small area."
It was two months before McKensie got up the courage to follow them. "They went into a Chinese restaurant, and disappeared into its back room." She somehow found the courage to barge into that room, and discovered to her horror that "they all had six fingers of exactly the same length, and their skin was shiny and moist." McKensie hit them "with a strong barrage of psychic energy", but they fought back with their tremendous will. Soon afterward, the aliens' skins "began to dissolve into powder", and in a few minutes, all that was left was their clothing. Ms. McKensie laments that "I haven't been able to locate them since."
We are the Bay Area Skeptics (BAS), a group of people who support the testing of paranormal claims, but are unconvinced by any of the supposed proofs of psychic powers that have been presented so far. We are committed only to finding out the truth about so-called psychic powers, whatever that truth may be. Nothing would be more exciting than to discover the existence of a genuine psychic power, if such a thing exists. However, experience has sadly shown that the field of psychic research is so filled with self-delusion, evasion, and fraud, that we are frankly skeptical that any genuine paranormal powers exist at all.
We hereby issue the following challenge to any and all psychics and psychic researchers in the Bay Area: Show us just one psychic power, of any kind, that can be demonstrated to be real under controlled conditions. Claims of psychic powers are abundant -- but we want to see somebody who can DEMONSTRATE a genuine ability at prediction, clairvoyance, telekinesis, paranormal healing, or any other alleged psychic power.
If you are a psychic, why is it to your advantage to accept this challenge? First, because of the monetary reward being offered, and second, because of the recognition and prestige you will achieve as the first person to successfully demonstrate such powers to a group of knowledgeable skeptics.
Robert A. Steiner, director of Bay Area Skeptics, is a professional magician of many years' experience. He is personally offering a reward of $1,000.00 to any person who can demonstrate ANY psychic power under controlled conditions, provided that Steiner is unable to duplicate or explain it by normal means. Furthermore, James Randi of New Jersey, a famous stage magician known as "The Amazing Randi," has for years offered $10,000.00 for proof of any psychic power performed under properly controlled conditions. Bay Area Skeptics will promptly report to Randi anyone whose powers seem worthy of testing. (In both cases, the conditions of the test will be arranged in advance with the would-be psychic, and the test will not begin until both parties are satisfied that the arrangement is fair.) Thus, anyone with genuine psychic powers can easily collect $11,000.00 from these two men.
The Bay Area Skeptics is a local chapter of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP), a worldwide organization of scientists and researchers who are skeptical of paranormal claims. CSICOP is the largest and best-known group of its kind in the world. Anyone who appears to possess genuine psychic powers will be reported to CSICOP's Executive Council, which will arrange further testing.
Think of the enormous recognition that would be given to the first person to convince the world's most outspoken skeptics of the reality of psychic powers! Think also of the tremendous benefit to science and humanity if the existence of miraculous powers for healing and for obtaining knowledge could at long last be proven!
There is probably no other place in the United States where the number of alleged psychics, and the degree of belief in psychic powers, is as high as here in the Bay Area. Psychic readers, healers, etc., abound in San Francisco, Berkeley, San Jose, and throughout the Bay Area. Purportedly scientific investigations of psychic powers are frequently carried out at SRI in Menlo Park, as well as at many other organizations in the Bay Area. Many of the area's colleges offer credit or extension courses in astrology, astral projection, aura reading, etc. We at BAS are proclaiming that "The Emperor Has No Clothes", and we challenge anyone to prove us wrong.
We are not difficult to reach. We all live in the immediate area. If you believe you have genuine psychic powers, the advantages of accepting this challenge are considerable.
Gullibility knows no boundaries: It infects young and old, rich and poor, male and female, educated and uneducated. What happens in Sacramento happens in San Francisco and Chico. People who fall for psychic foolishness here are no different from people all over the world. As we report happenings in our area, remember that we in metropolitan Sacramento are neither more nor less gullible than people elsewhere.
Several months ago, Bob Steiner and I appeared on a local radio talk show. The hostess introduced us as "two gentlemen who claim to be psychics". She went on to say that "if anyone wants to call in and talk, feel free to do so." Almost instantly, the telephone lines were full. This is interesting in itself. Since I had been on that particular show several times concerning other issues, I was familiar with the trickle of responses common to most talk shows. At other times, I have listened, and it appeared that the host or hostess was trying desperately to get people to call in.
This day, that was not a problem. The first caller, of course, wanted information about her life in terms of how something was going to turn out in the future. Bob did a standard "cold reading", which lasted several minutes, and the caller's response was one of satisfaction. After twenty minutes and six cold readings, the hostess asked Bob if he would mind giving his credentials as a psychic. His response was: "Sure, I'll be glad to. I'm a fake! I'm no psychic. I can't read people's minds." Bob went on to explain that what he had been doing was something almost anyone can learn to do.
After some more questioning by the hostess, it was quite obvious that Bob had fooled everybody into thinking he was really a psychic by using the age-old trick of cold readings. The difference was that Bob claimed nothing supernatural, merely a skill capable of being learned by almost anyone.
No sooner was this explained than the phone rang and a man asked Bob to tell him how his job was going to go next year. Incredulous, the show hostess asked the caller if he had been listening to the show. When he said "yes", Bob inquired whether the man had understood the explanation of what had occurred. The incredible response from the caller was:
"Yes, I understand fully what you are doing, but do it anyway."
In response to a lot of feedback, BAS has commenced to sponsor meetings open to the public. On Dec. 1, at 7:30 PM, there will be an open meeting at the Campbell Public Library, 70 North Central Avenue, Campbell, CA.
In addition to welcoming the public and meeting one another, the topic for the evening will be "Psychics and Police Work".
There is no admission charge.
How do you judge the strength and health of this new organization known as the Bay Area Skeptics? Let me count the ways:
Public reaction has been enthusiastic. People come forward wanting information, wanting to participate, wanting to meet other people interested in our organization and in our ideas, and wanting to do something -- anything -- to further the interests of the organization.
This enthusiastic reaction has been supported by words, deeds, and money. And it includes people in the Bay Area, throughout the country, and around the world.
Organizations have contacted us for information and for speakers.
The media have reacted warmly and are much interested in covering the views and progress of Bay Area Skeptics. When mystics come along, the media have shown a considerable inclination to contact us: for appearances, for confrontations with the mystics, and for information regarding mystical claims.
People contribute both letters and articles to "BASIS".
Many people have come forward volunteering their time, skill, and information in examining the claims of mystics. We have been able to build a cadre of skilled scientific consultants and investigators in a wide variety of fields.
When the founders found ourselves inundated with paper and short of money, a cry for help went out. It is a healthy organization when that cry is answered. Mike McCarthy has agreed to be Editor of "BASIS". I've known Mike for some time now. He has participated in presentations to the public, on skepticism as well as on other topics.
Mike is a Scientific Consultant for BAS, and is a skeptic by any definition of the word. Speaking of words, Mike has considerable skill and experience in their use, both spoken and written, and in the editing of them. With the increased contacts with the media and the public demanding my time, and with the increased correspondence that crosses my desk concerning Bay Area Skeptics, it is indeed a comfort to find such an able person willing to do the editing of "BASIS". Mike's considerable knowledge of and access to a computer/word processor is the icing on the cake.
Earl Hautala, a skeptic, subscriber, and alert thinker, has stepped forward to share some of the burden and joys of handling much of the paper that comes our way. Earl has been instrumental in bringing Bay Area Skeptics to the attention of many, including having it and me introduced at a meeting in San Francisco where a "clairvoyant" was the speaker.
Others have also volunteered their help. Hang in there -- we'll find a use for your talents.
The Board members and others continue to contact the media with ideas and reactions about the possible existence of mystical powers, and about the positive existence of Bay Area Skeptics.
And, happily, people have replied to the request for money. With the time made available by the volunteers, we will shortly embark upon finalizing our recognition as a tax-exempt subsidiary of THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL (CSICOP). When this finally comes through, contributions to Bay Area Skeptics FROM INCEPTION will be recognized as a tax-deductible charitable contribution.
CSICOP, and its excellent magazine, "The Skeptical Inquirer", have been supportive to Bay Area Skeptics, its first local chapter.
The word of our organization and reactions to it have produced such good, uh, vibes that we will shortly be seeing other local groups springing up, and subsequently affiliating with CSICOP.
All of the above, with the considerable contribution of time, effort, and money of you folks who are reading this right now, have enabled us to make the inroads on behalf of reason that we have made in the past several months.
And that, friends, is how you can judge the strength and health of this new organization, Bay Area Skeptics. Thank you all for that!
The end.
We have all seen the sensationalized treatment that UFOs have received on TV, even from "responsible" news organizations, with their exciting but unsubstantiated claims of dramatic UFO encounters. A refreshing change was the season opener for NOVA (actually a production of the BBC) telecast on PBS stations October 12 and 13.
This past February, John Groom, writer and producer of the show, was at my house to discuss approaches to the subject and sources of information, and at that time I became aware that he would not dish up just another piece of journalistic trash. I was not disappointed.
Not only were many of the most famous UFO incidents on record discussed and recreated, but, significantly, a special effort was made to seek out natural explanations wherever possible to account for the alleged UFOs sighted. Both UFO believers and skeptics appeared on the program, although the balance seemed to weigh in favor of skepticism, as I think must necessarily be the case when we faithfully adhere to the scientific method.
I would say that the show's greatest weakness was not in excess belief of skepticism, but in a failure to be able to discern APPROPRIATE skeptical explanations. Not ALL prosaic explanations have equal merit. In my view, far too much time was spent on Dr. Persinger's hypothesis that UFOs are somehow the result of "earthquake lights", or balls of light supposedly caused by strains in the earth's crust.
Persinger says that the many weak earthquakes in the U.K. cause luminous displays. Rubbish, I say; here in California we have weak earthquakes every few days, and in the Bay Area we would see UFOs nightly. If Persinger's theory were true, UFOs would correlate with fault lines; we could go up in the Santa Cruz mountains, and photograph UFOs aplenty. Yet in fact, California does not lead the country in UFOs. Sorry, folks, but UFOs correlate with population, not with earthquakes.
Persinger even attributes the Travis Walton "UFO abduction" to the effects of these geological fuzzballs on poor Travis's brain! Far more convincing was the finding of polygraph operator Jack McCarthy about Travis: "gross deception" -- a finding that the "National Enquirer" and APRO tried to cover up, but that was brought to light by Philip J. Klass of CSICOP.
If you missed the show, try to catch it when it is rerun. We will also try to have a showing of it at a future BAS social gathering.
We finish 1982 on a distinctly upbeat note for an organization less than six months old. Bay Area Skeptics has already had a good impact in our area and is expanding with all due speed.
We have over 150 subscribers at the moment, and pass out another few hundred copies of the newsletter each month, both to the interested and the hostile. The Skeptic's Challenge is making the rounds, and may yield interesting results in the future. The Bay Area journalist community is now aware of our existence and has already found several occasions to turn to BAS for skeptical counterbalance to credulous claims. This is a remarkable record for such a young group.
Best of all, people like me have somewhere to turn for confirmation that, yes indeed, there IS good reason to be skeptical when faced with dazzlingly fatuous tales of modern wonders.
Last year, I attended a psychic demonstration, and found to my surprise that fully a third of the audience were not true believers. Apparently, they were dragged along by believing friends. As the show progressed, they grew more and more uncomfortable, both at the ludicrous tricks of the psychic and at the credulous enthusiasm of their friends. When the psychic revealed himself as simply a stage magician, the sense of relief from these skeptics was palpable. Unaware that others like themselves in the audience felt the same way, they had begun to fear that the world was turning upside down; that it was they who were unreasonable for being rational, while their friends were quite reasonable in insisting that nonsensical card tricks
constituted evidence of otherworldly powers.
When the wildly improbable is marketed on every supermarket counter as the conventional wisdom, reasonable men and women can start feeling pretty lonely. BAS has been formed, in part, to counter that feeling.
There is certainly a combative element to our charter, for we do have our subscribers who enjoy a good tussle with the forces of unreason. But there is also for many of us the social element.
It is a relief to spend a little time among people who will agree when you say that rationality is not a cruel weapon devised by conspirators to put shackles on the minds of men; that the "National Enquirer" is not, in fact, a reliable source of information about spacemen, talking plants, or magical medical breakthroughs; that it is not unreasonable to believe that Las Vegas survives not merely because true psychics are unwilling to use their powers for monetary gain; and that a few clever card tricks do not necessarily constitute evidence of mystical powers beyond the ken of science simply because the trickster says so.
Our plans for 1983 consist of continuing and multiplying our present activities: challenging gullible media reports of paranormal occurrences; persuading journalists that BAS is a valuable resource for information about and experts on paranormal claims; further persuading journalists that it is irresponsible to treat claims of paranormal events as harmless "fun" stories not subject to the normal rules of journalistic ethics.
We are trying to collect information on the careers, predictions, and flaws of local "psychics", in hopes that at least some people will be impressed by a record of failure. And we continue to seek opportunities to speak and debate on the side of reason and common sense in the media, and before schools and community groups.
To accomplish our goals, we are fortunate to have many subscribers who are experts in various fields of the paranormal, who are familiar with the personalities and literature of everything from UFOs to psychic surgery, and who can handle themselves ably in a public forum.
But let us not neglect our many subscribers who may not be experts on UFOs or the Bermuda Triangle, but who would like to learn more, and who would like to make a contribution to our efforts against the tidal wave of irrationality.
Many of us are eager to support the purposes of this group, and there is much we can do, even though we are not experts or technical specialists. We can perform and assist in research; we can give moral support as members of the audience at speeches and debates to counterweigh heavy representation from true believers; we can watch for opportunities for action. We can, in other words, serve as a valuable resource for BAY AREA SKEPTICS.
That is one reason why the December 1st BAS meeting was scheduled to include expert information on a common object of our attentions: the use of psychics in police work. Future meetings will likewise include expert discussions.
This kind of theme meeting will help bring the subscribers up to date on an area of study; let us know what BAS has done and decide what to do in the future in this area; and to suggest ways in which the general subscribership can offer support.
I want to urge you to try to make it out to at least one BAS event in the near future. You will find your fellow subscribers, board members, consultants to be bright, convivial, rational, mildly anarchic, and definitely stimulating.
-- The Editor